August 12, 2010

Slower Global Growth

Data from three important corners of the globe point to slower global growth. This has led to a movement away from risk causing a drop in the AUD, equity markets and a further drop in US yields.

In the US worse than expected June trade figures pointed to a downward revision for Q2 growth. The advance estimate of Q2 US GDP was 2.4%, and the trade data, showing the trade deficit widened to $49.9bn in June, much worse than the median $42.1 bn forecast, would take off around ½%

Industrial production and retail spending data in China confirmed the economy is slowing from the heated pace set earlier in the year.

UK growth outlook was revised lower by the BoE to 3% yoy in late 2011 from 3.5% yoy forecast in May. Inflation is projected in two years to be at 1.5% rising to 1.7% the following year.

In Australia however consumer confidence rose 5.4% in August after the 11.1% increase in July.

Employment figures are due out today with expectations for another solid gain after the 46k extra jobs in June. NAB forecast +20k in July with the unemployment rate remaining at 5.1%.