One of the key releases (CPI) in the economic release calendar is out today at 11.30am. I've placed the NAB forecasts below. If the figures (the RBA will focus on the underlying measure) come out above market expectations we'll see wholesale yields move up. This is the figure the RBA will use to justify a rate hike if they deem it necessary. The market has already priced in a pause for a few months so if the figures are within expectations there will be more of the same.
From NAB
We expect an increase of 1.0% in the headline CPI, buoyed by higher tobacco, utility and petrol prices, for an annual pace of 3.4%. But it is the underlying measures which will attract most attention. The trimmed mean was at 3.0%yoy in Q1, while the weighted median was at 3.1%. The RBA is forecasting that the average of these two underlying inflation measures will be 2¾% over the year to June, which requires a quarterly outcome of 0.6-0.7%, a step down from 0.8% in Q1. (The NAB forecast is also 0.7%). If the quarterly outcome was to be 0.9% or higher, the annual rate would rise above 3%, raising the chances of an RBA hike next week
